An elephant divided against itself cannot stand

It surprises me how nobody in the blogosphere or the media has noticed this very interesting foible about the shape the presidential field has taken. I’m writing this before Rudy Giuliani gets third place in Florida, but I don’t really see a need to wait.

As soon as Giuliani drops out of the race, there will be only four candidates left vying for the Republican presidential nomination: Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul.

Each of these candidates speaks to a different wing of the Republican party. ((If elephants had wings, they would have four wings.)) Mitt Romney, a businessman, has taken firm command of the issues of the economy, effectively representing the part of the party that seeks low taxes and a free market. John McCain, a war hero, has taken the issue of national security as his own, along with the section of the party that thinks global terrorism is the most important issue. Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, has appealed to the religious right and evangelical base, but precious few others. Ron Paul, meanwhile, has breathed life into the previously moribund libertarian wing of the party.

Each candidate appeals to a distinct section of the party that had previously been united. In essence, the party has been split in four.

Whoever wins the nomination will only win because he managed to get the most delegates, not because he unified the party. And without a unified party, the Republicans have no chance of taking the presidency this November. This is just conventional wisdom, what isn’t (yet) is what a fitting metaphor it is that these four candidates are the four candidates that are left. Essentially, this race has turned into a metaphor of itself. How perfectly amusing.

I hope someone else picks up on this.

It surprises me how nobody in the blogosphere or the media has noticed this very interesting foible about the shape the presidential field has taken. I’m writing this before Rudy Giuliani gets third place in Florida, but I don’t really see a need to wait. As soon as Giuliani drops out of the race, there…